Energy Policy

The energy policy announcement has highlighted what has been blatantly obvious for sometime. The resentment of so many towards Malcolm Turnbull overrides any willingness to analyse and judge policy on merit. Despite what was announced this week which delivers on many of people's demands, the knockers just keep moving the goalposts.

One deluded little soul even claimed the Government’s energy policy is just Tony Abbott’s policy minus the Paris targets. People agreed with him. If that was true I would expect Tony Abbott and those same pro-Abbott supporters to be cheering and claiming victory over Malcolm Turnbull however they’re not. Instead, they are whining their little heads off. This highlights the idiocy of political debate driven by identity politics. It’s not about policy for some it’s about getting one back on the other guy.

Back to energy. It’s about time we faced facts. There is no magic pudding that will fix our energy mess. It has been a long time in the making so it won’t be turned around a few weeks; it will take years. Even then not everyone will get everything they want or demand. It is impossible to deliver all things to all people. So it is a matter of priorities. Whilst there are different priorities two impact the most on individuals and business; reliability and cost.

Our energy recovery time line will be driven by several factors. There are current legal agreements that must run the course. There are the required political negotiations with a hostile opposition being Labor/Greens. You can add to that mix  Micros like Pauline Hanson and One Nation who are already in the Labor camp criticising. Heavens knows how long those negotiations will take. That’s just on the Government side.

There are business leaders who have to convince boards to change direction. That’s no easy task. Plus, there is the imperative of attracting new investment to expand our traditional power sources to deliver stability. Let’s not forget regulators and other interest groups.

Trying to balance the needs of so many diverse stakeholders, including consumers is hard. You’d have to be naïve to think it isn’t. Whilst many only think of themselves the challenge goes well beyond. It pays to remember that.

Work has already started on costs. Recent Government pressure on power suppliers has delivered results. My new energy deal is significantly lower as a result.  All things being equal I should see a reduction of about $150 a quarter. Around $600 per year. The lesson is, pick up the phone and shop around. Far too many expect the government to do all the work and to deliver all their demands on a silver tray.

People are complaining about the measly price reduction under the policy announced yesterday. However, what about the perceived savings that will be delivered due to costs not rising? Plus that’s on top of any reductions we are currently enjoying.

Kerry Schott, chair of the Energy Security Board in responding to a question on the ABC about the guarantee said. “The guarantee is about providing a reliable power system and meeting the emissions targets set in the Paris agreement. What will happen when those mechanisms are put in place is that prices are likely to come down and they're likely to keep coming down.” That last comment is important. So, if we get the frame work right that’s what we can expect; prices to keep coming down. Win, win.

Josh Frydenberg pointed out yesterday, by 2030 the coal/gas share of the energy mix would be in the range of 64% -72%. He also rightly mentioned there were “more likely” to be upgrades or extensions in coal plants.  That should please conservatives. Now, the industry has some certainty on direction, I expect Josh Frydenberg is right and we will see that happen. You can’t expect business to invest if they don’t understand where Government or the country is heading. Now they have some certainty. You can bet Josh Frydenberg will continue to work with industry to achieve the coal/gas target assuming the government is re-elected. Given identity politics is rife in Australia there is no guarantee they will be. If we end up with Shorten and Labor all bets are off. So let’s not forget that. We play a role here.

Josh Frydenberg has also pointed out the new model is premised on ideas of no subsidies, no taxes, no trading schemes. Isn’t that what everyone has been screaming for? We also have the commitment of guaranteed supply something individuals and business has demanded. I would have thought that would generate some acknowledgement and credit  from the conservative side, but no it didn’t. Why? Because for a significant number their loathing for Turnbull is so entrenched they can’t give him credit for anything. That has to be the classic cut off your nose off spite your face scenario is ever there was one.

From where I sit there is a lot more positives than negatives in what was announced. More detail needs to be released however, on what we’ve been given it is a significant shift in the right direction. More should be encouraged.

If conservative voters want additional things like more coal fired power stations and nuclear power, then give the conservative Government the power to deliver it. Stop playing  “I’ll place my bet each way” and stymying the Government in the Senate. Labor, Greens, Independents and cause parties are not the solution. I also ask myself this question. Why would any Government continue to battle against the tide, when so called supporters have tied Governments hands behind their back as they did in 2013 and again in 2016. Why would any decent candidate sign up for that?

As Australians we have always prided ourselves on fairness. Giving people a fair go. I include giving my elected Government a fair go as well, when deserved. As a nation, and to our shame we seem to have lost our way on a fair go. I hope commonsense returns soon. Because identity politics is wrecking this country. When it’s reaches the point where sensible policy is dismissed based on who delivers it and not what it contains that in my humble opinion is insanity.

Polls Are Down - Let's Chuck Out The Leader

The Newspoll is out today and the knockers are in full flight. I've commented many times, it's rather funny to watch people diss the polls. That is until the results suit their agenda. Hence, the Turnbull assault squad are having a jolly old time this morning. 

This really stuns me. After suffering the chaos that resulted from tearing down a succession of prime minister's there are people who are openly championing doing it again! It's alarming. We either enjoy the chaos or we are exceptionally slow learners. There appears to be little consideration of the real impact of political overthrows. 

Even more alarming if the polls are right is the support for Labor. Despite the fact Malcolm Turnbull is the preferred PM, Bill Shorten leads Labor. Bill Shorten's sole mission is to destroy Malcolm Turnbull. Hence, Labor's sole mission is to destroy the government. Forget about running the country, getting debt under control and passing necessary legislation to make that happen. In essence being an effective opposition. Destroying the government isn’t being effective, it's being a vandal. All Shorten is focusing on is wedging Turnbull on SSM.  I'm gobsmacked people prefer as their government a bunch that behaves like this. 

Labor lied about Medicare during the election. They scared the pants off vulnerable people. Now they are insulting the public with their vile accusations about the SSM plebiscite. This is despite the fact that Bill Shorten supported a plebiscite only a few years back. So what is he saying? We've all turned into a bunch of homophobes who can't be trusted to behave responsibly in a couple of years? It seems he is. Yet, the public prefers a government that thinks so lowly of them? Yes, I am gobsmacked people would prefer a government with no integrity and no respect for us. 

Whether you approve of Turnbull and how became PM or not, he is. In addition, he won an election as PM albeit by a slim margin. It was always going to be slim but, a win is a win. He therefore (much as it might be galling) has a legitimate claim to the position.  

So as I see it we have three choices. One. We join the call for Turnbull's removal and go through even more upheaval and time wasting. Meanwhile, important initiatives stall or aren't implemented. Labor gains more ammunition provided by the LNP. Under those circumstances, how long would another leader last I wonder? As for the call to bring Abbott back. Look at his polls. Unless of course you believe those polls were wrong for 30 cycles and now they right. 

Two: We desert the party and give Bill Shorten and Labor a free pass to continue destabilising and politicking unabated. Three more years of soap operas. Stuff the country. 

Three: We think about what is best for the country. I consider that to be a stable government delivering on what the majority voted for (with sensible modifications where warranted). In other words we let the government do their job and if we don't like it, we vote them out next election. We just can't keep turfing leaders out. Politics isn't a popularity contest, it's about governing.

There is another question I have. If Turnbull is still the preferred PM over Shorten. But the LNP is down in general. That tells me that whilst there is a negative Turnbull impact it's the party per se that needs to brush up. Time for a bit of inwards soul searching chaps. The behaviour of some members of the LNP is less than satisfactory and it does contribute to the poll result. The same as it did in the Abbott era. 

There are even people who believe Pauline Hanson is the solution. Surely, we have more sense than that. But, the divide and conquer plays to her hand. Of that there is little doubt. She attracts the protest vote, but remember protesters are rarely effective competent leaders. They are good at protesting. There is a big difference. 

As for us voters. Perhaps it's time for us to grow-up and stop acting like a bunch of petulant kids. 

Question: How much are you prepared to pay?

Question: How much are you prepared to let the government spend for changes to our refugee intake policy. I have assumed (possibly dangerous) you don't want to see our debt position worsen as a result of the proposed Labor & Greens increases. What are you prepared to give up byway of benefits? Or conversely, what are you prepared to contribute byway of increased taxes and charges to pay for it? 

Remember this proposal isn't general immigration. This is for increases to the humanitarian refugee intake. This will means people from third world countries; predominately war torn. 

The LNP have committed and budgeted to spend $700million to cover the cost of the increase of 12,000 one off uplift. This is besides our current intake of 13,750; this increases to 18,750 by 2018 - 2019. 

Labor's proposal is an annual increase to 27,000 at a cost of $2.7billion over four years. 

If we adopted the Greens proposal of a staggering 50,000 annually the cost would be $7billion over the same period. To put this into perspective. That equates to housing a city approximately the size of Wagga Wagga every year. That doesn't even touch on the special needs of those people. 

It's easy when it's someone else's money conjured up by the mysterious government money fairy from the pot at the end of the rainbow. But it's yours and mine. We pay. 

So, it's a simple cost based question. What are you prepared to pay in increased taxes and how much are you prepared to give up byway of current benefits? Or, are you simply prepared to see the country go into more and debt leaving the legacy for future generations to deal with? 

A couple of comments on the Peter Dutton issue. A lot of people condemned him for what he said. Completely ignoring the fact that he was talking about the likely profile of our humanitarian intake today. Not the profile 50-40-30, even 20 years ago. In many cases a profile very different in both their religious and social maturity than those who came here following the Second World War. Whilst our country has developed, grown and matured economically and socially, the same can't be said for all countries. Particularly those where the bulk of humanitarian and boat people have come from. You may not like what he said and, many called him unAustralian. If anyone's acting in an 'unAustralian' manner it's the people attacking him. We have to be mature enough to debate thorny issues no matter how unsavoury and confronting the facts are. If we can’t then we forego the right to call, ourselves a mature and intelligent society. 

Research commission and published by the then Labor government back in 2011 confirms what Mr Dutton said. Although I'm not sure I totally agree with his comment about taking Australian jobs. As the jobs taken by people who come into the country are often those shunned by locals. The facts with respect to literacy, welfare and employment prove what he said is right. No amount of bullying or slurring Peter Dutton or those who defend him will change that. 

Budget 2016 : Now The Hardwork Begins

The budget been delivered and so far comments have been largely positive. I’ll ignore the idiotic ramblings of people like Andrew Bolt. No government can deliver on the wants of everyone. It's about balancing fairness. On that point I believe Scott Morrison has done a good job. 

I’ve said on many occasions that my assessment of the Turnbull Govt would be based on a couple of key measures. 

1. 1) Budget 2016 
2. 2) The Treasurer, Prime Minister and key cabinet ministers ability to sell the budget 
3. 3) Election policies 

I’m comfortable with the budget. I was pleased to see Treasurer Morrison resisted the urge to open Pandora’s Goodie Box. I mentioned in a recent blog that the Treasurer should steer clear of ripping the guts out of school and hospital funding. He did. Big tuck for that. Changes to superannuation are reasonable.  The removal of the works test for over 65 year olds who want to make a contribution should please self-funded retirees. 

Over the coming days we will be subjected to more and more analysis and sad people like me will plow through the budget papers. But, so far so good. 

The Treasurer and the Prime Minister hit the airwaves today, as they should.  But, the real test will come over the next week or two. Labor and the Greens have already flagged they will block certain initiatives around tax cuts. We expected that, so no surprises there. 

Now we sit and wait for an election to be officially called followed by various parties delivering election promises. This is where the real test begins for Malcolm Turnbull. Turnbull will lead the party to the election. He has 50-days to convince the electorate that his government deserves another run. He’s starting behind the gate but that is often a good place to be. It's certainly advantageous if you are a fighter. We’ll now see if Turnbull is a fighter. I suspect he is and I suspect he will enjoy the challenge. It  won’t be ‘fire and brimstone’ but I expect we’ll see restrained determination. I’m comfortable with that. 

The real highlight of the day was the announcement by Clive Palmer that he won’t be re-contesting for the seat of Fairfax. He cited family reasons.  He made a complete ass of himself in QT yesterday but don’t be fooled by his hollow gesture. He makes his intentions clear in his valedictory speech at the 7min27sec point. He wants the balance of power in the senate and you can bet your life he’ll be running for a senate spot. Note, despite family reasons he HASN’T ruled it out. I just pray to heavens voters are wiser this time round and give Palmer and PUP a very, very  wide-berth. 

(link to) Palmer's valadictory speech

So now the hard work begins. The LNP are off to a good start. They’ve performed strongly in the parliament over the last two days. The budget has been reasonably well received and for me I can tick off my first point. I hope I can tick off 2 and 3. Time will tell. 

Can We Afford To Gamble With The Election

Now that Malcolm Turnbull has signalled the Double Dissolution and a July 2nd election date, it's a good time to reflect on where we are politically.  It's important for two reasons; 

1. To try to understand what led us to this point

2. And, to make sure we don’t make the same mistakes  

The Liberal National coalition sweep into power in 2013 after the six year nightmare under the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Governments. Tony Abbott was riding high as the elected PM and swiftly went about delivering on promised key objectives. We have talked about those ad nauseam.

The honeymoon ended with the 2014 budget and we were on a steady slide for months. In August 2015 I penned a blog to ex Prime Minister, Tony Abbott. It was titled Dear Prime Minister Abbott. What I wrote, wasn’t only about how I felt. A lot of us felt the same way. I know that from personal conversations and chatting with people on several forums. It was supported by the overwhelming response I received on posting this piece on Twitter. 

Things sadly didn’t change so the party changed leader. In came Malcolm riding high on the crest of a wave. But things turned sour fairly quickly and now we are plunging rapidly back to where we started. Cue Turnbull’s big play. It took guts to do what he did calling for a DD. I believe the intentions are sound but the risk of it turning pear shaped are high. That said, I believe courage deserves support. 

Perhaps if Mr Abbott had listened and made the called for changes things may have been different for him and us. But we won’t know, so we have to deal with the cards we’ve been dealt. Malcolm Turnbull will lead us to the election. I don’t mind admitting I’m not overly enthusiastic about that.

But it is, what it is. 

I accept and understand why many conservatives are unhappy. But that isn’t new. There were many unhappy conservatives when Abbott was leader. This unrest steadily increased throughout 2015. But most of the moderates were not comfortable sharing how they felt. They were slammed when they did. Now we have the DelCon movement. The major difference between the DelCon's and previously unhappy Liberals  is, many of the DelCon's are hell bent on payback. As a result, we risk being in a worse position than we find ourselves in now. The consequences of that are alarming. 

If we were in a solid position financially and the global market was buoyant, we could run the risk of experimenting. That is, send the Liberals a very strong message. But, we aren’t financially solid and the global market is particularly volatile. Due to Labor’s recklessness we are swimming in debt. Our mining boom has fizzed and we need time to build new industries. The warning bells are ringing on another market crash. We have NO cookies in the jar to buffer us (thanks to Labor). The odds for taking a gamble are not in our favour. 

Given the above I’ll be helping the LNP win government. I wasn’t over the moon with the change. But I’m just as angry with Tony Abbott as anything else. He could have done something he didn’t. So he gets no sympathy from me. I’m no different to many others I’m a Liberal and through gritted teeth I’ll vote for Turnbull’s team and work my butt off to help keep him honest.  The only thing which will change my position is a shocker of a budget. That coupled with a plan that lurches far too far to the left. If that happens there's no hope for any of us. I may as well pack up and move permanently to my UK home. 

I’ve said before Tony Abbott achieved a significant majority in the lower house but people didn’t trust him in the senate. His senate result was the worst ever. So claims he achieved a landslide are overstated. Unless the electorate delivers you a senate that works it's no victory as we’ve discovered.We can blame the ‘vote whisperer’ & I have. BUT if people had given Abbott the vote to enable him to govern we wouldn’t be in the position we are in now. It's that simple. 

The scary thing is, the micros and independents are still re-contesting. In addition, there will be many new ones running; all untried and untested. So the question for me is? Can I trust the new ones to do what they say they will? No. Do I trust the current backbenchers? Hell no. For me, it a matter of can I afford to gamble. I seriously don’t think I can. 

In the absence of an alternative to the Liberals a number of unhappy conservatives have stated they will donkey vote in the lower house. Their right of course but if enough people do it, they will effectively hand the seat over to Labor. One donkey might not seem much but if 100, 200 plus people do the same, it's a huge risk. Remember, Clive Palmer won by 53 votes against a Liberal candidate who scored 41.3%  first preferences against Clive’s 26.5%. Look how that experiment worked out. 

Adam Bandt said yesterday if we end up with a hung parliament the Greens will hold the balance of power in both houses. Just think about what that means. They want to increase the asylum seeker intake to 50,000 per year. They want to bring back a carbon tax (but so will Labor). The list goes on and on. If through our actions we give Labor a ‘leg-up’ the risk of a hung parliament is real. Queue left, in walks the Greens. 

All elections are important but this one more so. This one is about reforming (cleaning out the senate) stability and prudence. I’m not convinced it's the time to protest or to gamble with our future. Whilst I am but one vote hopefully I can convince a few unhappy conservatives to rethink sending a protest vote. To ask them to give the government an even chance of getting back with a workable parliament in both houses. To ask themselves the question; can we afford PM Shorten and his union controllers? Can we afford the Greens controlling both houses? Can we afford another unworkable senate? Can we afford taking a risk on single issue micros and independents? That includes the Australian Liberty Alliance.

I’m keen to see what's in the budget and the plan for the next three years. Government is about compromise. No government can satisfy everyone's demands. It's a matter of weighing up what's important to us as individuals. That said, it’s equally important to acknowledge what's best for the country as a whole. I didn’t agree with all of Abbott’s policies. I won’t agree with all of Turnbull’s either. The lead up has been messy but I’m not going to hang the government for that. It's the substance that counts not the theatre. 

If Malcolm Turnbull does anything stupid then by all means we should demand they kick him out. As with Tony Abbott, Malcolm is the leader he needs to prove he deserves our trust. If he fails, don’t let him get away with what Tony got away with, blaming everyone else but himself. It's the leaders bums on the chair. Perform or get kicked. I'm counting on Turnbull performing.

Have We Forgotten that Labor Is The Opposition?

When Tony Abbott lost the leadership of the LNP back in September I had mixed feelings. I don’t believe I am in any way unique in not gaining any joy out of witnessing someone's downfall. On the other hand, it was obvious to anyone other than the rusted on, that there was something badly amiss within the party room and within the electorate when it came to support of Tony Abbott. So, whilst I was saddened by Mr Abbott’s downfall, I was also relieved that something had happened and I was looking forward to the LNP gaining the upper hand once more. 

I had no idea how Tony Abbott would respond, what he would do and how he would conduct himself after the shock of being dumped had worn off. I was delighted when he came out and stated that he would not snipe or white-ant and that he would continue to work in the best interests of the party. He even encouraged people to get behind the Turnbull Government. So how disappointing that he has very quickly plummeted to the level of chief sniper attacking in particular Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop. Two people who were  loyal to him despite a working relationship that become more and more problematic after the February aborted spill. 

I’ve recently become a fan of the ABC program Kitchen Cabinet. My ABC viewing is restricted to dramas, but a friend suggested I watch the Ricky Muir appearance on Kitchen Cabinet so I did. It was enlightening. Hence, I’ve been working my way through past episodes on iView ever since. Last week, I watched the Bob Hawke episode. He made a comment that stuck in my mind because it reminded me of Tony Abbott. It was, “You have to have the capacity to hate to be a good opposition leader. You have to have the ability to bash the government.” I think that was a pretty good description of Tony Abbott and few would deny I suspect that he was an extremely good opposition leader. Bob Hawke went on to say that, that doesn’t always make you a good government leader. 

Tony Abbott was a very effective opposition leader but he was not a good Prime Minister, so perhaps Bob Hawke as right. Great opposition leaders do not make good leaders of government. Tony Abbott was warned, about his leadership. He did not heed the warning. He chose not to do what was necessary to fix some of the challenges he faced. He alone did that. He was removed. 

Now we find that Tony Abbott is the one who is sniping despite declaring he wouldn’t. He now claims he doesn’t remember discussions with people. People within his own ministry who were trying to help and indeed warn him. Given the circumstances, it’s almost beyond comprehension that Tony Abbott has no recollection. No one else is claiming they don’t recall, only him. Does Mr Abbott’s apparent loss of memory explain his reliance on Peta Credlin and his insistence that she attend all meetings and functions?  Does he suffer from a retention problem?  It might explain some of the behaviour that others struggled with. 

That aside, it is time to move on. I don’t want t see a repeat of the first nine months of 2015. The country needs the government to get on and do its job. If there are people in Canberra including Mr Abbott who can’t and who are intent on sniping and destabilising then they need to get out and to let those who are focused on fixing up the mess do it. Labor is the opposition, let's not forget that. 

I'm A Conservative

Two of the hottest topics currently are asylum seekers; in particular Muslim asylum seekers and the Paris Climate meeting. I guess for us conservatives, this debate is heightened because of the change in government leader. 

In the past, we appeared to have a clear divide between Labor, Greens and conservatives on both of those issues. But I wonder if it really was that clear cut. If you are pro you must be on the left. If you are against, you must be on the right. 

I’m a conservative. I support the Liberal Party, have done for years, but that doesn’t mean I’m devoid of compassion for other people or the environment. I can see the merits of controlling pollution. You only have to look at countries like China to see the disastrous impact of millions of cars on the road and their air quality problems. Companies pumping chemicals into waterways wreck havoc on wildlife. I am deeply concerned about deforestation and the impact on the environment; land degradation, plants and animals and air quality.  

I believe as a society we should do all we can to protect the collective environment. Doesn’t mean, however, I buy the myth of global warming or support the exploitation of developed countries as a cash cow to prop up failed governments, the UN or IMF.  I certainly don’t support closing coal fired power stations, but I do think developing technology to deliver cleaner fossil fuel production is a good idea. I detest blights on the landscape and seascape in the form of wind turbines; costly, ugly, killing fields and depending on where they are they can be grossly inefficient. Large scale solar farms are equally reviled. I do like the idea of solar panels with battery power storage, thus taking homes off grid; brilliant idea. I’m also a huge fan of hydropower. 

The question of asylum seekers is a vexing one. I am pleased the LNP had the fortitude to stop the boats and to deal effectively with the odd one or two who have attempted to land here since early 2014. But I also don’t support closing the front doors to some who are in desperate need of a safe haven. Hence, I supported ex Prime Minister Abbott when he announced we would be taking an additional 12,000 persecuted minority Syrians from refugee camps. Prime Minister Turnbull has supported that decision as expected. 

I find it fascinating that people on social media cheer on Kurds fighting ISIS and rebels in Iraq and Syria, but scream NO to relocating some of the Kurdish men, women and children here. I trust our intelligence and immigration people will do their jobs selecting who comes here. Let's face it, we don’t have to import terrorist. We only have to give lunatics access to the Internet to learn all they need to know to cause a problem here. We aren’t Europe. We are an island we control who comes here. I simply can’t support closing everything up and erecting the No Room At The Inn sign. 

So yes, I’m a conservative. It doesn’t mean I should have to say no to every initiative to improve the environment. It doesn’t mean I should have to support a closed door asylum policy. Because I do support some of those initiatives and share those opinions doesn’t mean I’m a closet Leftie. It simply means I’m a middle of the road conservative and proud of it.