Friday 26 February 2016

Malcolm Turnbull Can't Afford To Fall Into The Tony Abbott Trap

When the Liberals changed leaders I breathed a sigh of relief. Despite getting off to a good start after winning the election, by early 2015 the cracks were forming. The consequences of that are common knowledge. The Government limped along until the challenge in September last year. 

When Malcolm Turnbull put his hand up for the top job he did it on the basis of the leadership failures of Tony Abbott. Such as Tony didn't listen to his caucus or consult with his cabinet. Tony’s arrogance and refusal to listen to ministers who, after all, are the ones in charge of their portfolio’s. Tony suspected the loyalty of his ministers and a lot of that drove his lack of trust issues. Tony’s inability to lead the team and to manage the recalcitrant backbenchers. Tony’s failure to deal with the heavy handed over controlling PMO. Ministers were frustrated, backbenchers were frustrated and the electorate was becoming increasingly disillusioned. This played right into the hands of our hound-dog left leaning media. 

Malcolm likewise got off to a great start. Whilst many Abbott disciples turned on Malcolm with a vengeance the electorate in good old Aussie fashion were prepared to give him a go. It was a baptism by fire with major security issues, TURC and bedding down a new team, etc., but he weathered the storm. I thought he did a pretty good job. 

However, in the last few weeks, Malcolm appears to be doing exactly what he accused Tony Abbott of doing, particularly when it comes to consultation and engagement, managing the trouble makers and making decisions. 

Despite what some people have said, the left wing media were never going to give Malcolm a free run. In particular, there is a well developed Fairfax/Labor partnership driving a ‘divide and conquer’ strategy that will run its course up to the election regardless of who is leading the Conservatives. They are using every crack, every stumble and every hint of discord to drive the wedge, spook the backbenchers and unsettle the electorate and it’s working. Again!!! 

Malcolm came to the chair on the basis that he was best placed to drive economic reform. He has credentials to do that, but he isn’t the Treasurer, Scott Morrison is. It appears blatantly obvious that Malcolm and Scott have not been on the same page. 

Malcolm made the fatal mistake of going to the public and talking up Tax Reform and not engaging effectively with the Treasurer. Malcolm in essence did a Tony he ‘jumped the shark’. The humiliating backdown and the resulting flip flopping is playing right into Labor’s hands. As a result the attacks on Labor’s budget plans are being derailed. We’re on the back foot, when it should be Labor. 

The Treasurer has been working for weeks with the department and other bodies to determine the best course of action to deliver a plan to bring our economic future into balance. That plan will be announced in the May budget. That’s no easy task when you consider the Treasurer has to manage Labor’s debt mine field and deliver on what conservatives hold dear; lower taxes, debt reduction, controlled spending, growth and jobs. He has to do this in the face of falling revenues, global uncertainty, an ever demanding electorate, a feral Senate who continue to block savings measures and a bunch of ‘jump at shadows’ backbenchers. 

Perhaps Malcolm feels that given the expectations the electorate had as a result of his financial background that he is one who should be engaging with the public on all financial matters. He shouldn’t. That’s Scott Morrison’s job. Malcolm should be managing behind the scenes. Given comments over the last couple of days it looks like Malcolm now realises that Scott Morrison is right when he talks about the importance of controlling spending and going after some minor reforms leading up to the election. The big Tax Reform can come later. Let's face it, you don’t have to eat the elephant in one go. Pacing yourself often gets a much better result and certainly creates less heartburn for both the Government and the voters. 

It takes an exceptional person to step into a new leadership role and not stumble a few times until they come to grips with all aspects of being the leader. Malcolm has been an extremely successful entrepreneur and businessman. That doesn’t automatically mean that he would instantly become a superb leader of the Government. I think he is trying to do too much himself. Good leaders manage from the middle, they understand their portfolio managers are grown-ups, they don’t need the boss holding their hand. If Ministers need consultation they know where the PMO office is.  This was something that Tony couldn’t grasp, but Malcolm can. His business success proves that. Now, he just needs to do it; for himself, his team and the many weary Liberal supporters out there who are losing the will to continue to support the party. 

The Prime Minister is a smart man and from what I am hearing, Malcolm will listen to the advice he is receiving and I’m strongly of the belief he will act upon it and then we can all get back to doing what we like best, focusing on wiping out Labor at the next election.