Polls Are Down - Let's Chuck Out The Leader

The Newspoll is out today and the knockers are in full flight. I've commented many times, it's rather funny to watch people diss the polls. That is until the results suit their agenda. Hence, the Turnbull assault squad are having a jolly old time this morning. 

This really stuns me. After suffering the chaos that resulted from tearing down a succession of prime minister's there are people who are openly championing doing it again! It's alarming. We either enjoy the chaos or we are exceptionally slow learners. There appears to be little consideration of the real impact of political overthrows. 

Even more alarming if the polls are right is the support for Labor. Despite the fact Malcolm Turnbull is the preferred PM, Bill Shorten leads Labor. Bill Shorten's sole mission is to destroy Malcolm Turnbull. Hence, Labor's sole mission is to destroy the government. Forget about running the country, getting debt under control and passing necessary legislation to make that happen. In essence being an effective opposition. Destroying the government isn’t being effective, it's being a vandal. All Shorten is focusing on is wedging Turnbull on SSM.  I'm gobsmacked people prefer as their government a bunch that behaves like this. 

Labor lied about Medicare during the election. They scared the pants off vulnerable people. Now they are insulting the public with their vile accusations about the SSM plebiscite. This is despite the fact that Bill Shorten supported a plebiscite only a few years back. So what is he saying? We've all turned into a bunch of homophobes who can't be trusted to behave responsibly in a couple of years? It seems he is. Yet, the public prefers a government that thinks so lowly of them? Yes, I am gobsmacked people would prefer a government with no integrity and no respect for us. 

Whether you approve of Turnbull and how became PM or not, he is. In addition, he won an election as PM albeit by a slim margin. It was always going to be slim but, a win is a win. He therefore (much as it might be galling) has a legitimate claim to the position.  

So as I see it we have three choices. One. We join the call for Turnbull's removal and go through even more upheaval and time wasting. Meanwhile, important initiatives stall or aren't implemented. Labor gains more ammunition provided by the LNP. Under those circumstances, how long would another leader last I wonder? As for the call to bring Abbott back. Look at his polls. Unless of course you believe those polls were wrong for 30 cycles and now they right. 

Two: We desert the party and give Bill Shorten and Labor a free pass to continue destabilising and politicking unabated. Three more years of soap operas. Stuff the country. 

Three: We think about what is best for the country. I consider that to be a stable government delivering on what the majority voted for (with sensible modifications where warranted). In other words we let the government do their job and if we don't like it, we vote them out next election. We just can't keep turfing leaders out. Politics isn't a popularity contest, it's about governing.

There is another question I have. If Turnbull is still the preferred PM over Shorten. But the LNP is down in general. That tells me that whilst there is a negative Turnbull impact it's the party per se that needs to brush up. Time for a bit of inwards soul searching chaps. The behaviour of some members of the LNP is less than satisfactory and it does contribute to the poll result. The same as it did in the Abbott era. 

There are even people who believe Pauline Hanson is the solution. Surely, we have more sense than that. But, the divide and conquer plays to her hand. Of that there is little doubt. She attracts the protest vote, but remember protesters are rarely effective competent leaders. They are good at protesting. There is a big difference. 

As for us voters. Perhaps it's time for us to grow-up and stop acting like a bunch of petulant kids. 

We Shouldn't Just Dismiss Polls

Much has been said about opinion polls over the last few years. The merit of which often depends on the personal like or dislike of parties and leaders and the results presented. Someone recently pointed out if the results are what you want to see they are right. But if they aren't what you want to see they are made up and lies. Makes me laugh but it's true. 

Whether you believe the poll results or not, it should be remembered they are often the only mechanism us, the voting public has to tell parties and their leaders what we think. They are a pulse check. It's too late when it comes to the election, the only other opportunity we have to voice our opinions. 

The most recent Newspoll has been the source of great delight to the antiTurnbull brigade. Let them have their fun whilst we focus on what the poll told us. Whilst the majority  of voters prefer Malcolm Turnbull to the alternative Bill Shorten, they are less enamoured with the LNP. That is a collective problem not just the problem of the leader, Malcolm Turnbull. If it was just down to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership, both the party rating and his personal rating would be below that of Labor and Shorten. 

So, my take is the voting public sees the LNP as a party that is lacking direction and that’s a combination of many factors not just leadership. From where I sit and from what I hear I can summarise that around four key points. 

There is no united front: In a broad-church party there will be conflicting opinions and views. That's fine but but once a decision is made it needs to be owned by the party. Petty squabbling must be kept behind closed doors. Please stop airing your opinions about others in the party in public. Let the media do that. 

Distractions: There’s too much noise being generated by the Liberal Taliban, the gang of three; Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin Andrews. 

Leadership: Malcolm Turnbull has to toughen up and take Labor head-on. I know he is careful with language but you can still be considered in your response and get the message out. Please accept the invitation to go on 2GB and take the likes of Alan Jones head on whilst you are at it. 

Policy: The vast majority of conservative voters are not in the top percent of income earners. So policies that include retention of the super tax concessions and private school funding (particularly if we are taking a tough line on public schools) will be considered unfair. Repair the education system and that must include the massive problem we have with unpaid debt. Lastly, more money for health. That means hospitals NOT health care bureaucrats   

So the message from Newpoll was a simple one. We aren’t happy with you lot and you need to get your act together. Stop the squabbles and pull together, let Ministers do their job, drop unfair practices and Malcolm please, start to lead. 

I honestly don’t think the public will buy the hollow barrel policies of Bill Shorten and Labor. That said, if my party (the LNP) doesn’t get their act together post-haste that could be the outcome. Bill Shorten PM, and almost the same front bench that presided over our worst period in Government ever, back in charge.  

What a nightmare that would be. 

LISTEN TO THE ELECTORATE

Over recent years, we have witnessed first hand, the destructive impact the media has, and the part it plays, in tearing down political leaders in this country. The right wing media were vicious in their attacks on Julia Gillard. Those attacks were cheered on by right wing conservative supporters and those praying for her demise. Last week, we witnessed the destruction of Tony Abbott and we recognised the role the left wing media played in that. This of course was cheered by those on the left-side of the political divide. The vast majority of Australians I suspect were somewhere in the middle in thinking surely this can't be happening again. 

Now, we have a new Prime Minister. One who has broader appeal, across the political divide and for the first time in a very long time we are seeing a Liberal Prime Minister given fair airtime by both the ABC & Fairfax. The cynics will claim it's because 'he's more like them.' Perhaps, but it's also somewhat disrespectful to the community where it is blatantly clear the Prime Minister has more support than either Ex Prime Minister Gillard or ex Prime Minister Abbott ever enjoyed. I say, thank heavens we see the likes of the ABC and Fairfax giving the Prime Minister a fair go to present himself and his credentials to the electorate. Then the ELECTORATE can decide on his merits, not some biased journalist with an axe to grind. 

The Essential Poll was out September 22nd. I've referenced this one, because the overall result was 50 / 50 where some others showed a significant lift on 2party for the Coalition. I know some people hate polls. I love them, but as I've said many times I like analysing the question details. And Essential always presents interesting questions. 

The key question for me related to the replacement of the Liberal leader. Did people approve or not. 58% of those polled approved of the change and the outcome. Of those, 58%, 59% fell into the LNP supporters bucket v's 27% disapproval. The overall Don't Know score sat at 18%. 

The poll asked a number of questions on the key attributes of both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten. Prime Minister Turnbull being declared a decisive winner.  

Those polled rated Malcolm Turnbull highly on intelligence at (81%), he is considered to be hard working (71%), a capable leader (70%) and that he understands the problems facing Australia (63%). 

People are crying out for strong leadership. And whether some people accept it or not, charisma and the ability to bring people along with you is a key component of leadership. It is in fact, in my view, the most important attribute for an effective leader. With 70% of respondents stating the Prime Minister is a capable leader that is a great platform to build on. 

Compare PM Turnbull's rating to that of the opposition leader Bill Shorten. Bill Shorten's highest rated attributes were hard working (61%), intelligent (58%), understands the problems facing Australia (48%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%). Way down the scale in comparison. 

Since June, those polled considered the major changes in Mr Shorten are. His aggression has increased (+8%), he is more narrow minded (+7%), in their eyes, he is a less capable leader (-7%), he is more erratic (+6%), and in comparison to most politicians his honesty rating has dropped (-6%). His honesty is now sitting on a very dismissal (23%) and he is more intolerant (+6%). If this was a school report card it would be marked as 'must do significantly better' or you are out. 

In response to the question who would make the better Prime Minister; Bill Shorten or Malcolm Turnbull 53% of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 17% think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister. Two weeks ago Bill Shorten was preferred over Tony Abbott 35% to 32%.

The breakdown of the 53% is even more interesting when you look at the support base with Labor at 35%  LNP at 84%, Greens at 41% and Other at 37%. Once again the Don't Know group is high at 30%, so a great opportunity for improvement for a new leader. 

Back to Liberal Leadership and the question; who do you think would make the best Leader of the Liberal Party. The Prime Minister won this by some margin with an overall score of 37%. In fact the next highest was Don't Know on 21% so lots to gain here. Followed by Julie Bishop on 14%. Not a bad a result given the PM has yet to be really tested. This question presented 8 options, which is perhaps too many but I will mention Scott Morrison only rated 4%.  

Now, it would be fair to say, that in opposition, Malcolm Turnbull rated very badly in the polls against Ken Rudd (the master salesman) and he split the Liberal party with his proposal for a carbon emissions tax. That led to his demise and overthrow by Tony Abbott when he lost by one vote in a leadership ballot. It's somewhat ironic now, that a major part of the contributing factors in Tony's overthrow was his unpopularity with the electorate (in comparison to Malcolm Turnbull) and the internal divide within the party room. This lead to a leadership ballot and Tony Abbott lost by 10 votes 55 to 44.

It's very early days, but based on polls, people have warmed to PM Malcolm Turnbull and indications are that a majority of LNP voters feels he is the right choice from the selection available to us. It's up to him to now to win the hearts and minds of Australians. I believe he can do that but time will tell. The radical right faction the (remnants from Nick Minchin Godfather era) if they don't adapt to the new circumstances will be wiped out. That's probably not a bad thing because it will bring back to the fold the lost middle ground including younger supporters. 

As for me, I am still taking a 'wait and see' approach. That said, it is such a relief to have an articulate leader who looks and sounds statesman like. I'm proud of my country, I want to be proud of the leader, after all he or she represents you and me. They represent who we are, what we believe and what we stand for. We are a young vibrant, innovative, high achieving and clever country. The leader has to match that. 

And I'd caution the media to present the facts and to respect people's rights to make up their own minds I've had enough of others forcing their opinions on me and destroying leaders in the process. 

And as Prime Minister Turnbull correctly pointed out, don't treat people as fools, their intelligence must be respected. 

Essential Poll: 

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Essential+Report+-+22+September+2015&utm_content=Essential+Report+-+22+September+2015+CID_cdeaa6025e8cf03fd1f1b7669ba4b54f&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=Federal%20politics%20%20voting%20intention

The Greens Peril

Politics have become very poll driven over recent years. I, like so many eagerly await the poll results and then accept or dismiss the results depending on how our political party fares. When we are ahead, great. When we are behind, they are rigged. 

But, and there is a but, if we spend time analyzing the answers to specific questions or look closer at the detail, they do tell a story. I've commented before on social media, that the answers to specific questions (Essential Poll in particular) often don't correlate with the overall results on voting intention. 

Using a recent Essential Poll as an example. The poll asked a specific question ‘ who do you trust the most’  out of the two major parties. The results rated the Conservative Government as more trustworthy than the Labor opposition on the bulk of questions but, the Government was still behind in the overall poll. Now there are reasons why that might be so.

1. On primary votes Labor still trails behind the LNP in most polls but win the two, party based on preferences. The Greens preferences are making a big difference to the overall result.
2.  The 'don't know' percentage was high which indicates people are still waiting or are unsure. With all the rubbish printed in newspapers and promoted via radio and TV I can understand the confusion.
3. Or perhaps people trust the policies and are comfortable with the results the government is achieving but are unsure about or don’t trust the LNP Leadership. That said, in many polls the LNP are rated more highly on leadership but it's fair to say the Prime Minister isn't popular. 

Which brings me to the point of this update. As a conservative, there is an even more troublesome trend emerging and that is the rise in Green support. It's no secret Labor and the Greens are welded at the hip. In a move that defies logic, even the so called staunch conservative Clive Palmer has given preferences to the Greens. So the Greens are effectively the game changers at the next election.

The Morgan Poll of this week really set the alarm bells ringing for me and reminded me that as conservative 'political' social media activists we have to start paying a lot more attention to this group. Whilst we have been spending all of our time focusing on Labor and the Unions, the Greens are working away in the background slowly but surely picking up 'the vote'; both Labor and Liberal swinging voters. Whilst the numbers highlighted in the detail are state based, they are an indication that can't be ignored. 

Greens Leader, Richard Di Natale appeared on the Bolt Report on Sunday. It was intiguing viewing. 

Mr Di Natale's Greens party has benefited to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars Union money. Mr Di Natale himself benefited to the tune of $200,000 of Union money in his election bid. When quizzed on what did his Union benefactors expect in return, he stated nothing other than support jobs. Why? Because Greens support jobs? Really!!! If they supported jobs, why are they supporting Labor's 50/50 climate plan that will result in the loss of thousands of Australian jobs? The same plan the CFMEU backs!!! 

Richard Di Natale nailed his flag to the pole last week, with his confirmation that Greens senators will support a petition to the Governor General, to ask him to remove Royal Commissioner Heydon, if it is tabled by Labor on Monday. This is a massive waste of time. The Governor General does not have the power under his reserve powers to remove the Commissioner. This petition, if tabled, is nothing more than a cynical political power play and no sensible Senator would entertain it. 

Mr Di Natale made a good point when he stated Unions protect employees. Yes, some do. Just not the ones who are being exposed as a result of TURC. Those Unions, clearly put themselves and their Labor mates first. So if Mr Di Natalie really cared about employees and jobs, why wouldn’t he be supporting Commissioner Heydon against the cynical, politically motivated self-protectionist game Labor and the major Unions are playing?  It's appears obvious that by his very actions money buys support. Why else would Unions be adding to the Greens 'war chest' and Mr Di Natalie be supporting them and throwing unfounded accusations at the Commissioner? 

Mr Di Natale highlighted his naivety in stating, “If you find a few bad apples get rid of them.” Seriously, half the stuff that is materialising from TURC would have remained buried, so how do you get rid of what you don’t know? Or, is it a case of out of sight, out of mind. Mr Di Natale even went as far as to accuse Commissioner Heydon of being of a ‘clear political persuasion’ and having a clear agenda!! The same Judge that NSW Labor appointed to the NSW Court of Appeal. Grubby stuff Mr Di Natale, grubby stuff. 

So if the Greens cared about jobs, as referenced earlier, why are they supporting a Labor plan that will wipe out thousands of Australian jobs? Why are opposing ChAFTA & why is Peter Whish-Wilson calling on Labor to refuse to pass the agreement because of ISDS? And why are they demanding the Government send the agreement back to the negotiating table?  For heaven's sake, even Labor's Shadow Treasurer, Chris Bowen, said on September 3rd, “We want to see the China Free Trade Agreement implemented. Those concerns can be dealt with by the Government. They don't need to go back to Beijing and renegotiate.” 

The China Free Trade agreement has been 10-years in the making. This agreement will deliver an increase in beef exports, dairy products and even insurance and healthcare services which means desperately needed jobs growth and the Greens play games.

The Greens agenda is very clear, they are about supporting Agenda 21 and driving green plans that will result in thousands losing their jobs. They will open up our borders, they will bankrupt the country, they will oppose anything Tony Abbott tries to do on climate, border protection and trade deals that deliver economic recovery and jobs growth. They will take Union money and side with Labor (so they can control the agenda behind the scenes). Whilst Labor play at being ‘light green’ and betray their heartland the Greens are increasing their support and using any ploy they can to do it. 

If you think you can’t trust Labor then you certainly can’t trust the Greens. And Labor and Conservatives should be uniting to destroy this Green Peril before it takes a greater foothold. If they don’t, both parties pay the price and Australia pays the price. The question is, can we AFFORD to pay the price? That’s a question every thinking Australian has to ask themselves. I think you know my answer, it is a resounding NO, we can’t.