Dear Prime Minister Turnbull

It’s time for a heart to heart with the poor beleaguered voters. Voters who are trying hard to sustain a positive position in the face of increasing electoral disillusionment. 

With the greatest respect to you, you have got to start acting as the Prime Minister not the CEO of Company Australia. In February I penned a blog highlighting the perils of you traversing the same path as Tony Abbott. Sadly, Mr Turnbull from the outside looking in that's where you are heading. This one-man band leadership style is not working. It's not working for us, it's not working for your ministers and it's certainly starting to backfire on you. You have very capable ministers who are more than equipped to run their diverse portfolios. Let them. When you challenged Tony Abbott you accused him of not respecting cabinet intelligence. From where I’m sitting I question whether you do that yourself. 

I know you rate yourself very highly on the subject of economics. So you should. But, you are not the Treasurer, Scott Morrison is. Let him do his job. Listen to him. When he says the problem is spending he is absolutely right. Scott Morrison has proven time and again he can sell a tough message and get the electorate to listen. I’m afraid, despite my first belief that communication is strong point for you, you aren’t doing as good a job. If you continue to insist on controlling everything yourself, what was the point of getting rid of Tony Abbott? 

You are a strategic thinker, fantastic we need that in a leader. But I sense what is missing is the ‘pulse check’. As an example, let's take the income tax sharing debate from last week. I can see the merit of what you were endeavouring to achieve. Forcing the states to be more accountable makes sense. However, on the street voters have no trust in the states not to ‘jack-up’ taxes as they did with land tax. Then we have state approvals for large council rate increases and the forced amalgamation of councils in NSW and the alarm bells ring loudly. The debate was dead in the water before it even got off the ground. There were too many influencing factors you couldn’t control. Whilst I understand the bumbled announcement on the edge of a sporting field, few see beyond the event of the day. Add the absence of Scott Morrison coupled with the fact  he was caught unawares (for the second time in almost as many weeks) and the rumours fly. Not a good look. I’m sure you are well aware perception  is reality.

The next big hurdle is the budget. If you do a poor job of this I think you can kiss goodbye to winning the election. Whilst reform is essential and hard decisions will need to be made, skimping on health and education is a suicidal move. People will buy a deficit in these areas if you tell them why you are doing it. 

As a true Liberal I’m for self-sufficiency and private education but super tax concessions and private school funding must stop. It's unfair, and it's bad economics. A study released in 2014 showed the rate of growth of super tax concessions is greater than that of the pension despite the ageing population, meaning the cost of the tax concession will soon overtake the pension to become ''the single largest area of government expenditure,'' by 2016-17. It also highlighted that the Commonwealth bill for the aged pension and super tax concession is projected to rise at a staggering 12% annually to be $50.7 billion in 2016-17.

''The overwhelming majority of this assistance flows to high-income earners,'' the report finds.

“Low income earners receive virtually no benefit,”

Ditching both of these delivers a win-win. It will soften the blow when you announce the tougher decisions and it will restore faith with the ‘middle of the road’ core. 

I don’t want a Labor Government returned to power. Should we go to a DD, I don’t want a gaggle of ill equipped single cause radicals in the Senate. I’ve had enough of the chaos. You can fix it and get us back on the front foot. You can steer the debate back onto the folly of Labor and you can deliver a win in both houses. That's something Tony Abbott couldn’t do because the public did not trust him enough to give him control of the Senate. It’s up to you but you don’t have a lot of time and you have a huge credibility ravine to traverse. 

As they say, “Do it NOW.” If you don’t you’ll go the same way as Dennis Jensen but this time we all go with you and Bill Shorten will be Prime Minister. 

LISTEN TO THE ELECTORATE

Over recent years, we have witnessed first hand, the destructive impact the media has, and the part it plays, in tearing down political leaders in this country. The right wing media were vicious in their attacks on Julia Gillard. Those attacks were cheered on by right wing conservative supporters and those praying for her demise. Last week, we witnessed the destruction of Tony Abbott and we recognised the role the left wing media played in that. This of course was cheered by those on the left-side of the political divide. The vast majority of Australians I suspect were somewhere in the middle in thinking surely this can't be happening again. 

Now, we have a new Prime Minister. One who has broader appeal, across the political divide and for the first time in a very long time we are seeing a Liberal Prime Minister given fair airtime by both the ABC & Fairfax. The cynics will claim it's because 'he's more like them.' Perhaps, but it's also somewhat disrespectful to the community where it is blatantly clear the Prime Minister has more support than either Ex Prime Minister Gillard or ex Prime Minister Abbott ever enjoyed. I say, thank heavens we see the likes of the ABC and Fairfax giving the Prime Minister a fair go to present himself and his credentials to the electorate. Then the ELECTORATE can decide on his merits, not some biased journalist with an axe to grind. 

The Essential Poll was out September 22nd. I've referenced this one, because the overall result was 50 / 50 where some others showed a significant lift on 2party for the Coalition. I know some people hate polls. I love them, but as I've said many times I like analysing the question details. And Essential always presents interesting questions. 

The key question for me related to the replacement of the Liberal leader. Did people approve or not. 58% of those polled approved of the change and the outcome. Of those, 58%, 59% fell into the LNP supporters bucket v's 27% disapproval. The overall Don't Know score sat at 18%. 

The poll asked a number of questions on the key attributes of both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten. Prime Minister Turnbull being declared a decisive winner.  

Those polled rated Malcolm Turnbull highly on intelligence at (81%), he is considered to be hard working (71%), a capable leader (70%) and that he understands the problems facing Australia (63%). 

People are crying out for strong leadership. And whether some people accept it or not, charisma and the ability to bring people along with you is a key component of leadership. It is in fact, in my view, the most important attribute for an effective leader. With 70% of respondents stating the Prime Minister is a capable leader that is a great platform to build on. 

Compare PM Turnbull's rating to that of the opposition leader Bill Shorten. Bill Shorten's highest rated attributes were hard working (61%), intelligent (58%), understands the problems facing Australia (48%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%). Way down the scale in comparison. 

Since June, those polled considered the major changes in Mr Shorten are. His aggression has increased (+8%), he is more narrow minded (+7%), in their eyes, he is a less capable leader (-7%), he is more erratic (+6%), and in comparison to most politicians his honesty rating has dropped (-6%). His honesty is now sitting on a very dismissal (23%) and he is more intolerant (+6%). If this was a school report card it would be marked as 'must do significantly better' or you are out. 

In response to the question who would make the better Prime Minister; Bill Shorten or Malcolm Turnbull 53% of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 17% think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister. Two weeks ago Bill Shorten was preferred over Tony Abbott 35% to 32%.

The breakdown of the 53% is even more interesting when you look at the support base with Labor at 35%  LNP at 84%, Greens at 41% and Other at 37%. Once again the Don't Know group is high at 30%, so a great opportunity for improvement for a new leader. 

Back to Liberal Leadership and the question; who do you think would make the best Leader of the Liberal Party. The Prime Minister won this by some margin with an overall score of 37%. In fact the next highest was Don't Know on 21% so lots to gain here. Followed by Julie Bishop on 14%. Not a bad a result given the PM has yet to be really tested. This question presented 8 options, which is perhaps too many but I will mention Scott Morrison only rated 4%.  

Now, it would be fair to say, that in opposition, Malcolm Turnbull rated very badly in the polls against Ken Rudd (the master salesman) and he split the Liberal party with his proposal for a carbon emissions tax. That led to his demise and overthrow by Tony Abbott when he lost by one vote in a leadership ballot. It's somewhat ironic now, that a major part of the contributing factors in Tony's overthrow was his unpopularity with the electorate (in comparison to Malcolm Turnbull) and the internal divide within the party room. This lead to a leadership ballot and Tony Abbott lost by 10 votes 55 to 44.

It's very early days, but based on polls, people have warmed to PM Malcolm Turnbull and indications are that a majority of LNP voters feels he is the right choice from the selection available to us. It's up to him to now to win the hearts and minds of Australians. I believe he can do that but time will tell. The radical right faction the (remnants from Nick Minchin Godfather era) if they don't adapt to the new circumstances will be wiped out. That's probably not a bad thing because it will bring back to the fold the lost middle ground including younger supporters. 

As for me, I am still taking a 'wait and see' approach. That said, it is such a relief to have an articulate leader who looks and sounds statesman like. I'm proud of my country, I want to be proud of the leader, after all he or she represents you and me. They represent who we are, what we believe and what we stand for. We are a young vibrant, innovative, high achieving and clever country. The leader has to match that. 

And I'd caution the media to present the facts and to respect people's rights to make up their own minds I've had enough of others forcing their opinions on me and destroying leaders in the process. 

And as Prime Minister Turnbull correctly pointed out, don't treat people as fools, their intelligence must be respected. 

Essential Poll: 

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Essential+Report+-+22+September+2015&utm_content=Essential+Report+-+22+September+2015+CID_cdeaa6025e8cf03fd1f1b7669ba4b54f&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=Federal%20politics%20%20voting%20intention