𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐋𝐨𝐲𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐲 𝐁𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐚 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐩

I have a theory about Pauline Hanson. You may not agree, and that’s fine, but I sense something isn’t quite jelling.

I watched her interview with Chris Kenny last night. To say it was a train wreck would be an understatement. Hanson isn’t the most articulate of women, but she was almost incoherent at times. Bordering on histrionics, it was painful to watch.

It left me thinking: “The lady doth protest too much.”

Now for my theory.

I suspect she isn’t entirely happy with what has transpired over her Victorian leader pick, but she can’t really back out now. Her slip of the tongue — “there’s more to come” — rapidly and rather clumsily corrected, was the trigger for that thought.

If Hanson privately has reservations — and it wouldn’t surprise me if she does — she has three choices. She can maintain her support despite growing concerns; reverse herself and implicitly concede that her original judgment was premature; or somehow reposition the argument so that a reversal can be presented as consistent with what she said before.

But I think she’s now in a bind.

If from the start she had said, “I’ll reserve judgment until I know more,” she would have left herself room to move.

But she didn’t.

Pickering publicly denied the allegations and she, in turn, publicly defended him in her usual hostile manner. Her supporters then rallied around that position, also defending him against criticism and, in some cases, reframing the issue around redemption, unfair attacks and hostile media.

Every additional defence raised the cost of reversing course.

Then Pickering reversed course himself. He called a press conference and admitted to everything — and more.

Hanson’s response at that point was: “It’s a private matter.”

But it isn’t entirely private when it concerns someone she has selected to represent her party and potentially the public.

The interesting question isn’t whether Hanson was right or wrong to defend Pickering initially. That’s for her to come to grips with.

It’s whether the strength and manner of that defence has now made reconsideration politically costly.

Hanson may not simply have created an environment in which her followers find it difficult to question her.

She may have created one in which their unquestioning loyalty makes it increasingly difficult for her to question herself.

And therein lies the danger of demanding absolute loyalty: eventually the leader can become trapped by the very loyalty that once protected them.