I never thought the day would come when I would write this, but after reading the Newspoll published last night, I’ve reached a conclusion that would have surprised me a few years ago.
The core Labor voter appears to be politically smarter than much of the Australian right.
Not smarter because they vote Labor. In my view, voting Labor is no guarantee of wisdom. Rather, they seem to have a better understanding of political strategy and how political power is won and maintained.
Labor supporters are not tearing their own party apart. Yet that is exactly what much of the conservative side of politics is doing. Liberal and National voters are abandoning their traditional parties in significant numbers and shifting towards One Nation. Whether you support that move or not, the result is the same: the Coalition is being weakened from within.
What makes this particularly remarkable is that it is happening while Labor is in government. Historically, oppositions gain ground when governments become unpopular. Yet Australia is witnessing something very different. The political energy that might once have been directed at defeating Labor is instead being channelled into internal battles on the right.
During the 2022 and 2025 election campaigns we saw the growing influence of grievance politics and the repeated application of what psychologists call the illusory truth effect — the tendency for people to believe claims simply because they hear them repeated often enough. Anger became a political product. Complex problems were reduced to simple slogans. Blame became more important than solutions.
The consequence is that many voters now appear more interested in expressing frustration than building a viable alternative government.
Of course, many who support One Nation have traditionally dismissed polling when the results did not favour them. It will be interesting to see whether the same scepticism applies when the numbers are positive. As I’ve always argued, polls are neither prophecy nor conspiracy. They are simply snapshots in time, offering a glimpse into the mood of the electorate.
I still hope the current trend proves temporary. I hope voters ultimately place greater value on competence, governing ability and credible opposition than on outrage and protest. I hope decisions are based more on evidence than emotion.
But if recent years have taught us anything, it is that anger is a powerful political force. And once a political movement becomes primarily driven by grievance, it can be extraordinarily difficult to persuade its supporters that the movement itself may be contributing to the very problems they claim to oppose.
That is why these Newspoll results concern me. Not because One Nation is polling well, but because they suggest a growing number of Australians may be prioritising protest over practical politics.
