Now that Malcolm Turnbull has signalled the Double Dissolution and a July 2nd election date, it's a good time to reflect on where we are politically. It's important for two reasons;
1. To try to understand what led us to this point
2. And, to make sure we don’t make the same mistakes
The Liberal National coalition sweep into power in 2013 after the six year nightmare under the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Governments. Tony Abbott was riding high as the elected PM and swiftly went about delivering on promised key objectives. We have talked about those ad nauseam.
The honeymoon ended with the 2014 budget and we were on a steady slide for months. In August 2015 I penned a blog to ex Prime Minister, Tony Abbott. It was titled Dear Prime Minister Abbott. What I wrote, wasn’t only about how I felt. A lot of us felt the same way. I know that from personal conversations and chatting with people on several forums. It was supported by the overwhelming response I received on posting this piece on Twitter.
Things sadly didn’t change so the party changed leader. In came Malcolm riding high on the crest of a wave. But things turned sour fairly quickly and now we are plunging rapidly back to where we started. Cue Turnbull’s big play. It took guts to do what he did calling for a DD. I believe the intentions are sound but the risk of it turning pear shaped are high. That said, I believe courage deserves support.
Perhaps if Mr Abbott had listened and made the called for changes things may have been different for him and us. But we won’t know, so we have to deal with the cards we’ve been dealt. Malcolm Turnbull will lead us to the election. I don’t mind admitting I’m not overly enthusiastic about that.
But it is, what it is.
But it is, what it is.
I accept and understand why many conservatives are unhappy. But that isn’t new. There were many unhappy conservatives when Abbott was leader. This unrest steadily increased throughout 2015. But most of the moderates were not comfortable sharing how they felt. They were slammed when they did. Now we have the DelCon movement. The major difference between the DelCon's and previously unhappy Liberals is, many of the DelCon's are hell bent on payback. As a result, we risk being in a worse position than we find ourselves in now. The consequences of that are alarming.
If we were in a solid position financially and the global market was buoyant, we could run the risk of experimenting. That is, send the Liberals a very strong message. But, we aren’t financially solid and the global market is particularly volatile. Due to Labor’s recklessness we are swimming in debt. Our mining boom has fizzed and we need time to build new industries. The warning bells are ringing on another market crash. We have NO cookies in the jar to buffer us (thanks to Labor). The odds for taking a gamble are not in our favour.
Given the above I’ll be helping the LNP win government. I wasn’t over the moon with the change. But I’m just as angry with Tony Abbott as anything else. He could have done something he didn’t. So he gets no sympathy from me. I’m no different to many others I’m a Liberal and through gritted teeth I’ll vote for Turnbull’s team and work my butt off to help keep him honest. The only thing which will change my position is a shocker of a budget. That coupled with a plan that lurches far too far to the left. If that happens there's no hope for any of us. I may as well pack up and move permanently to my UK home.
I’ve said before Tony Abbott achieved a significant majority in the lower house but people didn’t trust him in the senate. His senate result was the worst ever. So claims he achieved a landslide are overstated. Unless the electorate delivers you a senate that works it's no victory as we’ve discovered.We can blame the ‘vote whisperer’ & I have. BUT if people had given Abbott the vote to enable him to govern we wouldn’t be in the position we are in now. It's that simple.
The scary thing is, the micros and independents are still re-contesting. In addition, there will be many new ones running; all untried and untested. So the question for me is? Can I trust the new ones to do what they say they will? No. Do I trust the current backbenchers? Hell no. For me, it a matter of can I afford to gamble. I seriously don’t think I can.
In the absence of an alternative to the Liberals a number of unhappy conservatives have stated they will donkey vote in the lower house. Their right of course but if enough people do it, they will effectively hand the seat over to Labor. One donkey might not seem much but if 100, 200 plus people do the same, it's a huge risk. Remember, Clive Palmer won by 53 votes against a Liberal candidate who scored 41.3% first preferences against Clive’s 26.5%. Look how that experiment worked out.
Adam Bandt said yesterday if we end up with a hung parliament the Greens will hold the balance of power in both houses. Just think about what that means. They want to increase the asylum seeker intake to 50,000 per year. They want to bring back a carbon tax (but so will Labor). The list goes on and on. If through our actions we give Labor a ‘leg-up’ the risk of a hung parliament is real. Queue left, in walks the Greens.
All elections are important but this one more so. This one is about reforming (cleaning out the senate) stability and prudence. I’m not convinced it's the time to protest or to gamble with our future. Whilst I am but one vote hopefully I can convince a few unhappy conservatives to rethink sending a protest vote. To ask them to give the government an even chance of getting back with a workable parliament in both houses. To ask themselves the question; can we afford PM Shorten and his union controllers? Can we afford the Greens controlling both houses? Can we afford another unworkable senate? Can we afford taking a risk on single issue micros and independents? That includes the Australian Liberty Alliance.
I’m keen to see what's in the budget and the plan for the next three years. Government is about compromise. No government can satisfy everyone's demands. It's a matter of weighing up what's important to us as individuals. That said, it’s equally important to acknowledge what's best for the country as a whole. I didn’t agree with all of Abbott’s policies. I won’t agree with all of Turnbull’s either. The lead up has been messy but I’m not going to hang the government for that. It's the substance that counts not the theatre.
If Malcolm Turnbull does anything stupid then by all means we should demand they kick him out. As with Tony Abbott, Malcolm is the leader he needs to prove he deserves our trust. If he fails, don’t let him get away with what Tony got away with, blaming everyone else but himself. It's the leaders bums on the chair. Perform or get kicked. I'm counting on Turnbull performing.
